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[2023-02-25]华尔街日报 - 社论:中国的乌克兰和平策略

 

Beijing offers itself as a broker even as it may send arms to Russia.
尽管北京可能向俄罗斯运送武器,但它还是愿意充当掮客。

China is elbowing its way into the Ukraine war on the side of Russia, and it isn’t making more friends in the bargain. The latest example is the 12-point peace plan China floated on Friday that would help Vladimir Putin consolidate his gains in Ukraine.
中国站在俄罗斯一边挤进乌克兰战争,并没有在讨价还价中结交更多朋友。 最新的例子是中国周五提出的 12 点和平计划,这将有助于弗拉基米尔普京巩固他在乌克兰的成果。

Most of Beijing’s 12 points are too vague to mean anything—for instance, the second item warns against a “Cold War mentality.” But two points in the plan are revealing about Beijing’s concerns and the weakness of its Russia strategy.
北京的 12 点中的大部分都过于模糊,没有任何意义——例如,第二条警告不要“冷战思维”。 但该计划中的两点暴露了北京的担忧和其俄罗斯战略的弱点。

One is a criticism of “unilateral sanctions,” meaning sanctions imposed on Russia by Western allies without approval of the United Nations Security Council. Mr. Xi has been alarmed to discover that the West is able and willing to unite behind sanctions against Russia after the Ukraine invasion—a bad omen for China if Mr. Xi invades Taiwan.
一是批评“单边制裁”,即西方盟友在未经联合国安理会批准的情况下对俄罗斯实施的制裁。 习近平发现西方能够并愿意在乌克兰入侵后联合起来制裁俄罗斯而感到震惊——如果习近平入侵台湾,这对中国来说是个不祥之兆。

China also says it “stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role” in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. Beijing may hope it can cash in on Ukraine’s immense needs after the war. But Mr. Xi’s friendship with Mr. Putin has encouraged greater skepticism across the West about commercial ties to China.
中国还表示,它“随时准备为乌克兰的战后重建提供帮助并发挥建设性作用”。 北京可能希望它能从乌克兰战后的巨大需求中获利。 但习近平与普京的友谊让整个西方国家对与中国的商业关系产生了更大的怀疑。

Meanwhile, Western officials are warning that China may be preparing to send artillery and armed drones to help Russia. This would be a hostile act that would result in further economic decoupling between China and the West.
与此同时,西方官员警告称,中国可能准备派遣大炮和武装无人机帮助俄罗斯。 这将是一种敌对行为,将导致中国与西方经济进一步脱钩。

The diplomatic stakes for Mr. Xi came to the fore in a speech by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the U.N. Thursday. “We do have a peace plan right here in front of us,” she said. “It’s called the Charter of the United Nations. Its principles, which apply to every state, are very simple: Sovereign equality. Territorial integrity. And the non-use of force.” This was a pointed jab at the plan Beijing was on the verge of releasing. It’s all the more notable coming from a senior German official after so many years when Berlin was wary of offending Beijing.
周四,德国外交部长安娜莱娜·贝尔博克 (Annalena Baerbock) 在联合国发表的讲话突显了习近平的外交利害关系。 “我们面前确实有一个和平计划,”她说。 “它叫做《联合国宪章》。 它的原则适用于每个国家,非常简单:主权平等。 领土完整。 以及不使用武力。” 这是对北京即将发布的计划的尖锐抨击。 在柏林对冒犯北京持谨慎态度多年后,来自一位德国高级官员的讲话更加引人注目。

Mr. Xi may still conclude he can’t afford to let his Russian ally lose in Ukraine. He’s more likely to do so if he senses that Western support for Ukraine is faltering. Beijing no doubt understands all this. American politicians who believe Ukraine is a distraction from the strategic competition with China rather than part of that competition might want to clue in, too.
习近平可能仍会得出结论,他不能让他的俄罗斯盟友在乌克兰输掉。 如果他感觉到西方对乌克兰的支持正在动摇,他就更有可能这样做。 北京无疑明白这一切。 认为乌克兰会分散与中国战略竞争而不是竞争一部分的美国政客可能也想提供线索。


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